Synoptic analysis of dust storms in the Middle East

Dust storm in the Middle East and south-west Asia is a natural hazard and the Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain has been recognized as the main dust source in this area. In this study, more than 60 dust storms that occurred during the period 2003–2011 are investigated on the basis of MODIS satellite images, and 12 of the dust storms are selected for synoptic analysis using the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Data. The potential dust sources in the Middle East and south-west Asian region (20°E to 80°E, 5°N to 50°N) are analyzed and used in the synoptic analysis. Dust storms in the region can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., the Shamal dust storms and the frontal dust storms. Synoptic systems, associated with the two categories, are distinguished and the frequency of the patterns is identified. For 68% of the Shamal dust storms, a high pressure system is situated between 0°E to 30°E and 27°N to 45°N, and a low pressure system between 50°E to 70°E and 23°N to 43°N. For 86% of the frontal dust storms, a high is located between 51°E to 67°E and 18°N to 33°N and a low between 28°E to 48°E and 32°N to 43°N. Three main patterns for Shamal dust storms are identified, which represent about 60% of the Shamal dust storms. This analysis confirms that the Shamal is related to the anticyclones located over northern Africa to Eastern Europe and the monsoon trough over Iraq, southern Iran, Pakistan and the Indian Subcontinent. The analysis also shows that the main dust sink for the frontal dust storms in Tigris and Euphrates alluvial plain extends from center of Iraq to west and center of Iran and, in most severe cases, to northern Iran and the southern coast of the Caspian Sea.     

An investigation of near surface wind speed trends in arid and semiarid regions of Iran

Wind plays an important role on the ecosystems and hydrological cycles besides other meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and relative humidity. It strongly affects evapotranspiration, especially in arid and semiarid regions where there are serious problems in regard to water resource management. Evaluating the wind speed trend can provide good information for future agricultural planning. This study was conducted in order to investigate the wind speed trends over 24 synoptic meteorological stations located in arid and semiarid regions of Iran from 1975 to 2005. Near-surface wind speed was trended by nonparametric Mann–Kendall test spatially and temporally in three time scales (annual, seasonal, and monthly). Then, Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the amount of the changes; furthermore, 10-year moving average low-pass filter was applied to show general trends. Finally, the smoothed time series derived from the mentioned filter were classified in three clusters for each time series and then mapped to show their spatial distribution pattern. Results showed insignificant and significant, increasing and decreasing trends during the surveyed time. Wind speeds in less than 50 % of stations changed statistically in all time scales, and in most cases, the frequency of the upward trends was more than that of downward ones. The spatial distribution of significant wind speed showed that the increase mostly occurred in eastern part. Clustering gave us the turning point around 1990. Clearly, when clusters were mapped, they indicated the same pattern as the Z value maps derived from Mann–Kendall test which meant that the outputs of the mentioned method confirmed the other one. As the wind speed trends in different stations likely to follow the previous evapotranspiration (ET₀) trend results in Iran, it confirms that wind speed was an effective parameter on ET₀, even though other parameters should be considered too.     

Analysis of stochastic characteristics of the Benue River flow process

Stochastic characteristics of the Benue River streamflow process are examined under conditions of data austerity. The streamflow process is investigated for trend, non-stationarity and seasonality for a time period of 26 years. Results of trend analyses with Mann-Kendall test show that there is no trend in the annual mean discharges. Monthly flow series examined with seasonal Kendall test indicate the presence of positive change in the trend for some months, especially the months of August, January, and February. For the stationarity test, daily and monthly flow series appear to be stationary whereas at 1%, 5%, and 10% significant levels, the stationarity alternative hypothesis is rejected for the annual flow series. Though monthly flow appears to be stationary going by this test, because of high seasonality, it could be said to exhibit periodic stationarity based on the seasonality analysis. The following conclusions are drawn： （1） There is seasonality in both the mean and variance with unimodal distribution. （2） Days with high mean also have high variance. （3） Skewness coefficients for the months within the dry season period are greater than those of the wet season period, and seasonal autocorrelations for streamflow during dry season are generally larger than those of the wet season. Precisely, they are significantly different for most of the months. （4） The autocorrelation functions estimated ＂over time＂ are greater in the absolute value for data that have not been deseasonalised but were initially normalised by logarithmic transformation only, while autocorrelation functions for i = 1, 2 365 estimated ＂over realisations＂ have their coefficients significantly different from other coefficients.     

Hydrogeochemistry and carbonate saturation model of groundwater, Khanyounis Governorate—Gaza Strip, Palestine

Groundwater is a critical resource in Khanyounis city as it is the main source of water. The aquifer has deteriorated to a high degree, during the last two to three decades, in quality and quantity. More than 90% of the population get their drinking water from brackish water desalination plants. Fifteen domestic wells were sampled in 2002 to probe the hydrogeochemical components that influence the water quality. Na, K, Ca, Mg, Cl, SO₄, NO₃, and HCO₃ were analyzed. The data were statistically treated and plotted on the Piper diagram. A hydrogeochemical numerical model for carbonate minerals was constructed using the PHREEQ package. The results show that the groundwater is polluted with Cl, from seawater, and NO₃, sourced from fertilizers and sewage. The regression analysis shows that there are three groups of elements that are significantly and positively correlated. Na–Cl signature and plot show that seawater intrusion is advancing into the aquifer. The main hydrochemical facies of the aquifer (Na+K–Cl+SO₄), represents 60% of the total wells. Whereas 32.3% of the wells are located in the no pair up and no pair down fields on the Piper diagram. Calcite, dolomite, and aragonite solubility were assessed in terms of the saturation index where they show positive values indicating supersaturation. The hydrogeochemical behavior is rather complicated and is affected by anthropogenic and natural parameters.     

An investigation of trends in precipitation volume for the last three decades in different regions of Fars province, Iran

Under condition of climate changes as global warming, monitoring and detecting trend of precipitation volume is essential and will be useful for agricultural sections. Considering the fact that there were not enough research related to precipitation volume, this study aimed to determine trends in precipitation volume, monthly and annually in different regions of Fars province for the last three decades (33?years period; 1978–2010). Fars province is located in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, and it plays an important role in agricultural production. Inverse distance weighting interpolation method was used to provide precipitation data for all regions. To analyze the trends of precipitation volume, Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and 10-year moving average low-pass filter (within time series) were used. The negative trends were identified by the Sen’s slope estimator as well as Mann–Kendall test. However, all the trends were insignificant at the surveyed confidence level (95%). With regards to the application of 10-year moving average low-pass filter, a considerable decreasing trend was observed after around year 1994. Since one of the most important restrictions in agricultural development of the Fars province is lack of sufficient water resources, any changes onward to lack of sufficient precipitation impose impressive pressure and stress on valuable resources and subsequently agricultural production.     

Application of integrated geoelectrical methods in Khenadarreh (Arak,Iran) graphite deposit exploration

This paper is devoted to application of SP, resistivity and mise-a-la-masse method in Khenadarreh (Arak, Iran) graphite deposit exploration. Mise-a-la-masse method is one of the main geophysical exploration methods used to investigate conductive bodies with outcrops on the surface or in exploratory pits. By integrating mise-a-la-masse results with other geoelectrical methods, such as self-potential and resistivity surveys, useful results can be acquired. Powerful survey design, data processing and interpretation methods can make geoelectrical surveying results more reliable. Here, we applied integrated geoelectrical methods to explore the Khenadarreh-bala graphite deposit in the Sarband region of the Markazi province, Iran. We present a new and simple method for processing and interpreting mise-a-la-masse data, which corrects for the effect of distance from the current electrode in the conductive body. After correction, the residual potential values corresponded with the SP results and the apparent resistivity pseudosections. The geophysical results were confirmed by drill holes in the study area.     

The Miduk porphyry Cu deposit,Kerman, Iran: A geochemical analysis of the potassic zone including halogen element systematics related to Cu mineralization processes

Miduk hypogene and supergene porphyry Cu–Mo mineralization occurs within the Miocene porphyritic quartz–diorite and host Eocene plagioclase–hornblende phyric andesitic pyroclastic and flow sequence. Both the host rocks were extensively altered by hydrothermal fluids to dominantly potassic, phyllic, and argillic with interstitial to distal propylitic types.     

Simulating urban growth in a megalopolitan area using a patch‐based cellular automata

Although traditional cellular automata (CA)‐based models can effectively simulate urban land‐use changes, they typically ignore the spatial evolution of urban patches, due to their use of cell‐based simulation strategies. This research proposes a new patch‐based CA model to incorporate a spatial constraint based on the growth patterns of urban patches into the conventional CA model for reducing the uncertainty of the distribution of simulated new urban patches. In this model, the growth pattern of urban patches is first estimated using a developed indicator that is based on the local variations in existing urban patches. The urban growth is then simulated by integrating the estimated growth pattern and land suitability using a pattern‐calibrated method. In this method, the pattern of new urban patches is gradually calibrated toward the dominant growth pattern through the steps of the CA model. The proposed model is applied to simulate urban growth in the Tehran megalopolitan area during 2000–2006–2012. The results from this model were compared with two common models: cell‐based CA and logistic‐patch CA. The proposed model yields a degree of patch‐level agreement that is 23.4 and 7.5% higher than those of these pre‐existing models, respectively. This reveals that the patch‐based CA model simulates actual development patterns much better than the two other models.     

On Inflow to a Tunnel in a Fractured Double-Porosity Aquifer

Inflow to a tunnel is a great public concern and is closely related to groundwater hydrology, geotechnical engineering, and mining engineering, among other disciplines. Rapid computation of inflow to a tunnel provides a timely means for quickly assessing the inflow discharge, thus is critical for safe operation of tunnels. Dewatering of tunnels is another engineering practice that should be planned. In this study, an analytical solution of the inflow to a tunnel in a fractured unconfined aquifer is obtained. The solution takes into account either the spherical or slab-shaped matrix block and the unsteady state interporosity flow. The instantaneous drainage water table and anisotropic hydraulic conductivities of the fractures network are also considered. Both uniform flux and uniform head boundary condition are considered to simulate the constant head boundary condition in the tunnel. The effects of the hydraulic parameters of the fractured aquifer on the inflow variation of the tunnel are explored. The application of the presented solution to obtain the optimum location and discharge of the well to minimize the inflow to a tunnel is illustrated.